Introduction (00:00:00)
Title Slide (00:01:35)
Outline (00:03:40)
Why We Care (00:04:20)
Examples (00:04:30)
Why do we care (00:04:57)
Examples (00:05:05)
Why do we care (00:05:20)
Examples (00:05:30)
Why do we care (00:06:18)
Examples (00:06:27)
Why do we care (00:06:35)
Surowiecki's Examples (00:07:10)
Galton's Steer (00:07:28)
Galton's Steer (00:08:08)
Who Wants to be a Millionaire (00:08:20)
The Wisdom of Crowds (00:08:54)
Four Models of Information Aggregation (00:09:40)
Model 1: Errors Cancel (00:10:57)
Answer (00:11:40)
How Errors Cancel (00:12:02)
# Votes for Correct Answer (00:12:33)
Why the Crowd's Correct (00:12:57)
Even More Amazing (00:13:20)
Model 2: Parts of the Whole (00:14:16)
Parts of the Whole (00:14:36)
Model 3: Gravity of Truth (00:14:54)
Signals (00:15:20)
Three People (00:15:51)
Three People (00:16:53)
General Model (00:17:06)
Why “Gravity of Truth” (00:18:30)
Model 4: Averaging of Noise (00:19:00)
Noise/Interference (00:19:45)
Noises Off (00:21:09)
Important Question (00:22:16)
Which Model Fits? (00:22:25)
Often, NONE do. (00:24:14)
Two Separate Phenomena (00:24:20)
Interpretations (00:24:48)
Predictive model (00:28:00)
Signal (00:28:10)
“Lump to Live” (00:28:46)
How Do We Predict? (00:28:57)
Interpretations (00:29:32)
Predictive models (00:30:47)
Difference of Opinion (00:31:21)
Miles Davis: Aside (00:32:54)
A Model of Wise Crowds (00:33:32)
Reality (00:36:07)
Experience Interpretation (00:37:33)
Charisma Interpretation (00:38:52)
Balanced Interpretation (00:39:34)
Voting Outcomes (00:41:15)
Reality (00:42:06)
Row and Column Correct (00:42:31)
Row and Column Split (00:42:41)
Negative Correlation (00:42:50)
Not a Set Up! (00:43:15)
Question (00:49:00)
Blink (00:51:46)
Water Flow Problem (00:52:48)
Walsh Functions (00:54:33)
Blinking (00:55:57)
The Real World (00:56:05)
2005 NFL Draft (00:56:28)
Predictive Error? (00:57:16)
Why Squared (00:57:34)
A Wise Crowd (00:58:00)
Why do people... (01:01:30)
# ICOS Tiles Stolen (01:01:40)
Predictions (01:01:54)
Squared Errors (01:02:02)
Predictive Diversity (01:02:15)
2=5-3 (01:02:25)
Crowd Error (01:02:37)
Diversity Prediction Theorem (01:02:47)
Crowds Beat Averages Law (01:05:18)
Crowds Beat Averages Law (01:05:54)
Incentives for Homogeneity (01:06:01)
Experts vs Crowds? (01:12:34)
Over Fitting Paradox (01:12:49)
The Difference (01:13:48)
In Praise of Markets (01:13:57)
The End of History? (01:14:30)
ICOS Ending (01:15:10)
Questions (01:17:00)
Presentation of Tile (01:23:01)
