Why four scenarios? (A brief lecture before the drama.)

The four Vision 2010 scenarios were organized around the structure of the matrix below. The two axes of the matrix represent two of the most significant sets of factors to be considered when trying to imagine the future impact of digital technology on scholarly communication.

The Competition axis represents the spectrum of challenges to the university's traditional role. At the low end there is competition among universities, but the competitive environment is much as it is today. At the high end the field has become wide open: as one Vision 2010 seminar participant put it, "It's no longer Yale versus Harvard; it's Yale versus Microsoft."

The Digital Literacy axis represents the degree to which information technology has transformed not only the essential set of skills required of the student, but also the very nature of knowledge creation and dissemination within the university. At the low end the idea of literacy and the processes of knowledge creation and dissemination are--at least within the walls of universities--much the same as they are today. At the high end, however, literacy has moved away from its traditional tight focus on text and has come to encompass a wider range of media. Students are expected to be fluent in reading, and creating, digital documents that communicate through an interactive symbiosis of text, graphic, sound, and video. At this end the process of knowledge creation, the notion of scholarly community, and the means of teaching and learning have all been transformed by technology.

The quotes in each quadrant below are taken from their respective scenarios (i.e., NW, SW, SE, or NE ). Click on a quadrant of the matrix to read the entire scenario.
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The four scenarios that grew out of this structuring matrix can be seen as explorations of the four corners of the possible. They are meant to provoke thought and discussion about the future of higher education and scholarly communication. After you read through them, please offer your reactions and ruminations in the Vision 2010 discussion forum . This Web site also includes a fuller explication of the scenario-building process.

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Send comments to vision-2010@umich.edu.
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