Ward Hansen is a professor at the Stanford Business School who has researched the
history of radio. Hanson says parallels with radio's past may help us understand the
commercial evolution of the Internet.
Both technologies rapidly captured public imagination, changing the way people thought
about distance and time. With radio, people could experience global events as they
happened. On the Web, people could see the world from a nearly limitless array of
perspectives, available on demand. These new experiences fueled grand visions and debates
about the emerging media's effects on social interaction and institutions.
Both media also shared an economic parallel. While many equipment suppliers were
profitable from the start, most content providers were not. Radio's rise to profitability
involved partnerships - the formation of broadcasting networks, like NBC and CBS, and the
arrival of mass-market advertising. Similarly, Hansen expects Internet content providers
will need to invent new business models to become profitable.
One lesson Hanson draws from radio history is that when people face a radically new
technology they usually focus on the direction it's taking. At the same time, they often
overestimate its perfectibility or misjudge the economic incentives of the key players.
One consequence is that we are generally much better at anticipating future features of a
new technology that we are at predicting its lasting influence on society.
To see more of Ward Hanson's work visit our Web site at www.iota.org. For Internet On
The Air, I'm Joan Silvi.
