SBEE Seminar Series: Collin Raymond
Ehrlicher Room, 3100 North Quad
Persistent Overconfidence and Biased Memory: Evidence from Managers (with David Huffman and Julia Shvets)
A long-standing puzzle is whether and how overconfidence can persist in field settings characterized by repeated feedback. This paper studies managers who participate repeatedly in a high-powered tournament incentive system, learning relative performance each time. Using both reduced form and structural methods we find that: (i) managers make overconfident predictions about future performance; (ii) managers have overly-positive memories of past performance; (iii) the two phenomenon are linked at an individual level in a way consistent with models of motivated beliefs.
Collin Raymond is an assistant professor of economics at Purdue University, and who is visiting Standford University for the year. He is interested in behavioral economics, microeconomics theory and experimental economics. His recent work has focused on understanding the psychological costs of lying, the underlying mechanisms that generate overconfidence, and how emotions affect choices for information.
Sponsors of this talk are the School of Information, the Ross School of Business, and the Department of Economics.
This event will take place from 11:45 am - 12:45 pm.