SBEE Seminar Series: Scott E. Page

A Lot of Diversity is Good. A Little Diversity... 

On the Possibility of Collectively Accurate Classifications: A Cognitive/Computational Unpacking of Condorcet 

Abstract: 

In this talk, Page will provide a cognitive/computational unpacking of the Condorcet Jury Theorem. The core of the talk will focus on a paper co-authored with Lu Hong, in which they construct a formal framework to study group accuracy on classification tasks. In the paper, Page and Hong derive necessary and sufficient conditions for perfect accuracy and then characterize a group’s ability to make accurate classifications as a function of its diversity, size, and the accuracy of its members. For groups relying on the majority rule, they show that increasing individual accuracy produces a setwise increase in collective accuracy, but that, contrary to intuition, increases in group size do not. They further show that increasing diversity, as measured by pairwise disagreement, only guarantees increased accuracy for highly diverse groups. Finally, they derive a general condition for increasing group size to raise or lower expected accuracy assuming individuals drawn from a population. In addition to the paper, Page will reframe the model using disciplinary lenses to discuss the potential for making good decision in complex environments.

Speaker bio: 

Scott E. Page is the John Seely Brown Distinguished University Professor of Complexity, Social Science, and Management at the University of Michigan, and the Williamson family Professor of Business Administration, professor of management and organizations, Stephen M. Ross School of Business; professor of political science, professor of complex systems, and professor of economics, LSA. In 2011, he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

His research focuses on the myriad roles that diversity plays in complex systems. He has written five books: 

• The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You
• The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies - New Edition
• The Diversity Bonus: How Great Teams Pay Off in the Knowledge Economy
• Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life (with John Miller)
• Diversity and Complexity

He has also published papers in a variety of disciplines including economics, political science, computer science, management, physics, public health, geography, urban planning, engineering and history.

In addition to writing papers and books, he has also filmed a video course on complexity called Understanding Complexity.

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